Who will be the next 40-40 guy in baseball? Alfonso Soriano was the last player to do so in 2006, but his stolen base days are over, especially now after having knee surgery a few weeks back.  Nine times since 2004 has a player gone 30-30 including two from Alfonso Soriano: Grady Sizemore, 2008: 33 HR, 38 SB, Hanley Ramirez, 2008: 33 HR, 35 SB , Brandon Phillips, 2007: 30 HR, 32 SB, Jimmy Rollins, 2007: 30 HR, 41 SB, David Wright, 2007: 30 HR, 34 SB, Carlos Beltran, 2004: 38 HR, 42 SB, Bobby Abreu, 2004: 30 HR, 40 SB, Alfonso Soriano (2) 2005: 36 HR, 30 SB, 2006: 46 HR, 41 SB.

Last 40-40 guy ever?

With the rules getting tougher on Performance Enhancing Drugs, MLB will likely see a decrease in homeruns.  Those who do hit 40 homeruns from now on we can assume it’s respectable.  I’m not assuming that the few potential 40-40 candidates did take steroids but guys in the past who have done it like Canseco and A-Rod don’t count in my book.  But other than Albert Pujols who else is a guaranteed 40 HRs a season?  Yes, Adam Dunn has hit at least 40 home runs a year over his last five years but he may be one of the most slow footed guys in baseball.

To be part of the 40-40 club one must possess a great deal of speed and power, a very unlikely combination but if you have it you are on the verge of superstardom.

Matt Kemp of the Dodgers has been tagged as “that next guy” to do it, but I just don’t see him smacking 40 homers.  Don’t get me wrong, he is a great player but I don’t think his power is 40 homerun potential.  This season Kemp has 24 homeruns which is a career high in his three year career.  Last year Kemp stole 35 bases and this year he has 33 with 16 games left to play.  I think if Kemp is stealing 40-50 bases a season that means he is getting on base more likely with base hits meaning he is hitting less homeruns and more manufacturing them with his speed.  If Kemp doesn’t get 40-40 by 2013 I think his chances are done by that point.

Mark Reynolds is a player who from now on is expected to hit 30+ homers a year.  This year he has 42 so it’s obvious he has 40 home run potential.  This year he has swiped 24 bags and should finish with 30 or so.  I can’t see him ever getting 40 steals because his strikeouts prevent him from reaching base as much as a 40-40 guy would like.  Then again, Soriano did strike out a career high 160 times in ’06 when he went 40-40.

Who else?  Can Sizemore do it after already having a 30-30 season?  I think his HR power was maxed out in ’08 when he hit 33.  Brandon Phillips?  Maybe the next time he is in a contract year.  Bobby Abreu?  He has only stolen 40 bases once and his career high in HRs is 31 so he isn’t even close. 

The next 40-40 guy.

Let’s keep in mind 40 homeruns is a homerun every four games approximately which equates to a homerun every 12.4 ABs (according to 3.1 plate appearances per game average required to qualify for the batting title).  Not many guys are capable of that today or even play 162 games to be able to do it.

So who will be the next 40-40 guy in my opinion?  Hanley Ramirez.  He has gone 30-30 already but was a few home runs short of 40 dingers (33 HRs) and was one HR shy of doing it again.  His base running and power potential is there and he has proved it more than any of the previous guys mention that he will consistently be swiping 40+ bags a season and at least 30 HRs.  He just needs to play 162 games and become a little more discipline at the plate. Potential is no longer a word in Ramirez’ dictionary but more like a reality and I believe Hanley Ramirez will go 40-40 in 2011.